Impact of the Global Energy Crisis on ASEAN

The Southeast Asian Futures Initiative Centre (SEAFIC) convened its first SEAFIC-ASEAN Roundtable #1, “Impact of the Global Energy Crisis on ASEAN” on 29 April 2026 in Kuala Lumpur, bringing together senior editors, economists, policy researchers and policy practitioners for a closed-door discussion on the implications of the recent Iran-Hormuz crisis for ASEAN economies.

Beyond Energy Prices: How the Shock Travels Through ASEAN Economies

The roundtable considered how disruption to the Strait of Hormuz and the movement of oil and other key commodities could affect ASEAN beyond headline energy prices.

Potential transmission channels include higher transport costs, insurance premiums, industrial input costs and disruptions across interconnected supply chains. Together, these pressures could contribute to broader inflation, affect businesses and households, and eventually weaken or disrupt demand across ASEAN economies.

Understanding ASEAN’s Supply-Chain Vulnerabilities

The discussion centred on SEAFIC’s inaugural in-house report examining ASEAN’s supply-chain vulnerability under a Hormuz disruption.

The paper argues that border-trade figures alone provide an incomplete picture of economic vulnerability. While direct import exposure is important, some sectors may inherit significant exposure indirectly through domestic and global supply-chain networks.

This means that the economic consequences of an energy shock may extend well beyond sectors that directly import energy or commodities from affected markets.

Malaysia: Concentrated Rather Than Economy-Wide Exposure

For Malaysia, the paper finds that exposure is likely to be concentrated rather than economy-wide.

Petroleum refining is identified as a key transmission channel. Meanwhile, some downstream sectors, including poultry and livestock, may appear relatively less exposed when measured through border trade alone, but become more vulnerable once dependencies on fertiliser, feed and other upstream inputs are taken into account.

This illustrates the importance of looking beyond direct trade exposure when assessing the potential economic consequences of external shocks.

ASEAN: Different Economies, Different Transmission Channels

At the regional level, the paper distinguishes between several forms of vulnerability across ASEAN:

• Refining-hub exposure – economies where disruptions are transmitted through petroleum refining and energy-related activities;
• Manufacturing embedded exposure – vulnerabilities embedded within industrial inputs and production networks;
• Logistics-driven pass-through – higher freight, transport and insurance costs feeding into domestic prices; and
• Indirect regional exposure – shocks transmitted through neighbouring economies and interconnected ASEAN supply chains.

These differences matter for policymaking. Countries exposed through refining, manufacturing inputs, freight costs or regional spillovers are unlikely to require identical policy responses.

From Economic Exposure to Policy Response

The roundtable also included a regional economic briefing by Oxford Economics, followed by a moderated discussion with invited discussants. As the session was conducted under a closed-door format, no individual remarks from the discussion are attributed in this article.

Chairman of SEAFIC, Tengku Datuk Seri Utama Zafrul Aziz, said:

“The aim of this roundtable was to move the discussion beyond headline fuel prices. For ASEAN, the real policy challenge is understanding how a shock travels through production and supply chain networks: where it enters, which sectors absorb it, and when it begins to be felt by households and businesses.

“This is where behavioural change and a greater sense of urgency become critical. The impact is neither uniform nor immediate; each country experiences the shock differently, depending on its economic structure, energy dependence, and policy buffers. Recognising these differences is essential to shaping timely, targeted, and effective responses.”

What Comes Next: Strengthening ASEAN’s Economic Resilience

Insights from the roundtable will inform subsequent work under SEAFIC’s ASEAN Monitor series, including further analysis of critical inputs, supply-chain concentration and opportunities for practical regional coordination.

The full research paper provides detailed methodology, country-level findings and sectoral analysis, contributing to SEAFIC’s broader work on anticipating emerging economic vulnerabilities and strengthening ASEAN’s preparedness for future external shocks.